-Risk Prevention, Mitigation, and Management Forum-

The Himalaya, majestic and serene, draws millions with its   beauty. But beneath this tranquility lies immense power. We experience the dramatic fury of the monsoons every single year – floods, landslides – events that scar the landscape and tragically claim lives.

Yet, there’s another, potentially far more devastating hazard lurking, largely unseen and dangerously underestimated: earthquakes. And earthquake is a harsh reality for the Himalayas.

Are we ready for the big one?

Imagine the colossal force of the Indian tectonic plate grinding relentlessly northwards, pushing against the Eurasian Plate.

This slow-motion collision, happening over millions of years, at a seemingly lethargic pace of just centimetres per year, is what created these magnificent mountains. But this slow creep is deceptive.

It’s like winding a giant spring, continuously storing unimaginable amounts of energy in the Earth’s crust.

When the stress becomes too much, the crust ruptures, releasing that energy in seconds as a powerful earthquake.

Ever tried breaking a piece of wood? It doesn’t break instantly and the force applied by you gets stored in the wood. After a while the wood breaks suddenly, while you hear cracking sound and your  hands feel some vibrations – it is  the release of the stored energy – the energy your hands transmitted to the piece of wood.

The same happens with earthquakes wherein rocks break and slip apart releasing the energy stored therein due to plate movement.

The entire Himalayan region is acutely vulnerable. History tells us of devastating quakes: Shillong (1897), Kangra (1905), Bihar-Nepal (1934), Assam (1950) – events that reshaped landscapes and claimed countless lives.

Alarmingly, Uttarakhand finds itself in a notorious ‘Seismic Gap‘.

Sandwiched between the rupture zones of the 1905 Kangra and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes, and having not experienced a truly great quake (Magnitude 8+) since potentially the Garhwal Earthquake of 1803, Scientists widely agree: earthquake in this region is long overdue.

The geological spring here is tightly wound, potentially primed for a catastrophic release.

Why the Complacency?

Despite this clear and present danger, a dangerous sense of complacency often prevails. Why?

It’s partly owed to human nature. Evolution has hard wired us to react to immediate and visible threats.

The long quiscence between major earthquakes – decades or even centuries – allow the memory and fear to fade. Psychologists call this ‘Fading Affect Bias‘: the emotional impact diminishes over time, pushing the threat to the back of our minds.

“It hasn’t happened in my lifetime, maybe it won’t.”

Furthermore, while disaster management authorities in Himalayan states have, understandably, intensified focus on monsoon-related hazards after the terrible events of 2013, 2021, and 2023, there’s a worrying perception that the seismic threat has been sidelined.

Have we become so focused on the frequent, seasonal dangers that we are neglecting the potentially apocalyptic, though less frequent, one?

Has the diligent work done previously on earthquake safety been put on the back burner?

Preparedness: The Only Real Defence

One might argue, “Earthquakes can’t be predicted, so what can we do?”

This misses the point entirely. Unlike a cyclone with days of warning or a flood with hours, allowing for evacuation, a major earthquake offers mere seconds of alert, if any.

Mass evacuation is thus impossible.

But this doesn’t mean we are helpless.

Preparedness is the defence and  it’s about building resilience before the ground shakes. It’s about ensuring our homes, schools, hospitals, and infrastructure are strong enough to withstand the tremors and deliver services on the aftermath of it.

And the evidence for its effectiveness is stark and undeniable.

Consider this tale of two cities, struck by near-identical earthquakes just four days apart in December 2003:

• San Simeon, California: Magnitude 6.6, epicenter 16 km deep. Result: Tragically, 2 people lost their lives, and 40 were injured.

• Bam, Iran: Magnitude 6.6, epicenter 15 km deep. Result: Over 26,000 people killed, nearly 23,000 injured, and 45,000 displaced. An ancient city turned to dust.

The earth didn’t discriminate. The energy released was virtually the same.

The horrifying difference in outcome wasn’t geology; it was human action and more so, inaction.

California, with decades of enforced building codes, public awareness campaigns, and a culture acknowledging seismic risk, proved resilient.

Bam, lacking such preparedness, faced utter devastation.

This forces a critical question upon us living in the shadow of the Himalayas: Which future are we building? California’s or Bam’s?

Bridging the Gap: Beyond Policing to Empowerment

Okay, so preparedness is key, primarily through earthquake-resistant construction.

We have building codes, right?

Yes, but enforcing these across the vast, often remote, and rapidly developing Himalayan landscape is a monumental challenge. Relying solely on ‘policing‘ every construction site is impractical.

True seismic safety is to come from voluntary compliance.

This is to happen only  when homeowners, masons, contractors, and engineers understand the risk, know how to build safely and translate their knowledge into resilient infrastructure.

It requires a shift from fear of penalties to empowerment through knowledge.

This demands sustained, widespread public awareness and capacity building campaigns.

The Awareness Deficit: Why Reinvent the Wheel?

Building this awareness requires resources and consistent effort and is not really going to come by overnight.

Worryingly, valuable resources already exist but seem underutilised.

Significant work haas  been done previously by several institutions that includes the Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre – DMMC in Uttarakhand which created vast volume of Information, Education, Communication materials – films that were even Censor Board certified, booklets, posters explaining seismic risks and safe construction practices in simple terms and that too in vernacular.

Are these high-quality, locally relevant resources being actively used and utilised  to reach the communities at the grassroots level?

Or are these gathering dust due to institutional changes or a lack of continuity?

Effective awareness isn’t a one-off project; it’s a continuous process, needing consistent effort and the utilsation of all effective tools, regardless of their origin.

The Achilles’ Heel: Institutional Instability

This points to a deeper systemic weakness hampering long-term resilience: institutional instability in disaster management.

Imagine the Health or Education department operating without a regular, dedicated staff, relying solely on officials on temporary deputation with little long-term stake.

Yet, Disaster Management, dealing with existential threats, often functions this way in most Himalayan states including Uttarakhand.

Without a dedicated cadre of disaster management professionals, institutional memory is to fade with each transfer or replacement.

Successful programs may be abandoned, strategies may change with new leadership, and long-term planning which is essential for earthquake preparedness may be ignored and this is to give way to short-term crisis response.

Building genuine, lasting resilience requires continuity, expertise, and dedicated professionals committed to the long haul.

The Time to Act is Now

The ground beneath the Himalayas is not sleeping forever. A great earthquake in this region is a certainty; only the timing is unknown.

Complacency is not just foolish; it’s deadly.

The lessons from Bam and California are unequivocal: preparedness works, and negligence kills.

We possess the scientific understanding, the engineering knowledge, and historical proof of what needs to be done.

The challenge is summoning the collective will – political, administrative, and societal – to prioritise seismic safety now.

We need robust institutions, sustained awareness campaigns empowering citizens, and a commitment to building structures that can withstand the inevitable shaking.

Waiting for the ‘Big One’ to strike before taking seismic safety seriously is not a plan.

It’s a gamble with hundreds of thousands of lives, and the very future of this beautiful region.

Let’s choose resilience.

Let’s choose preparedness.

Let’s act before it’s too late.