ब्लॉगस्वास्थ्य

Climate Change Induced Implications for Disaster Managers

-by Piyoosh Rautela 

Before dwelling into the topic that relates to climate change induced challenges for  disaster managers, particularly for the Himalayan region, it becomes pertinent to put forth that the Himalayan arc is  is vulnerable to multiple hazards that include earthquakelandslideflash floodforest fireavalanche and drought, but then unlike other regions Uttarakhand Himalaya has not witnessed any major seismic activity since 1 September 1803 Garhwal Earthquake, and is located in the seismic gap of 1905 Kangara and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes. This enhances disaster risk in the region around Uttarakhand Himalaya by manifold.

From the perspective of a disaster managerUttarakhand Himalaya is faced with twin challenges.

Firstly, prolonged seismic quiescence has led to complacency, and both masses and government have become casual towards seismic safety, which is in fact the biggest threat not only for this region but also for the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains extending up to the National Capital Region (NCR).

Secondly, largely due to their frequent occurrence, particularly during the monsoon period, the disaster management authorities seem to have diverted their entire attention towards landslide and flash flood management but in reality they are focused only on gathering information and quickly preparing incident reports related to rescue and relief efforts, rather than paying due attention towards prevention and mitigation.

The shifting sands of disaster

In the previous some years landslide and flash flood incidences have not remained confined to monsoon period. Devastating Varuavrat and Ramolsari landslides of 2003 and 2005 took place respectively in post- and  pre-monsoon period. In the year 2021, Dhauliganga valley was flooded during winter season while the Kumaun region was devastated by landslides and flash floods in the month of October after the recession of the monsoon. In 2023 Joshimath witnessed ground subsidence at an alarmingly fast pace in the month of January.

Dwindling freshwater reserves

This change in the pattern of disasters is often attributed to climate change, whose real and mammoth but often ignored impact is on the freshwater reserves that are dwindling fast with the recession of glaciers. It needs to be appreciated that the water of the Himalayan rivers sustains people as also agricultural and industrial activities in the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains and depleted water availability is to adversely affect electricity generationdrinking water availability and agro-industrial operations, besides having a negative impact on quality of life and sanitation for a large population of our nation.

Unpredictable Rainfall – A New Normal

Even though average rainfall may not have  reduced significantly, both spatial and temporal distribution in the region has changed enormously, with heavy rainfall incidences becoming increasingly common. Together with this both winter and pre-monsoon rainfall have become less and erratic.

Winter rainfall in the region is often delayed and this results in reduced retention of snow in the higher reaches resulting in negative mass balance of glaciers. This has adverse impact on glacier health, groundwater recharge and productivity of horticultural crops that are deprived of the required chilling hours, and are subject to early flowering. Absence of pre-monsoon rainfall results in abnormal heat and forest fires.

Soaring Temperatures – A Burning Issue

Erratic pre-monsoon rainfall results in abnormally high temperatures not only in the plains but also in the higher elevations and this is often accompanied by forest fires. 2024 witnessed this all across, wherein day time  temperatures crossed 40o C on several days, and normal life in almost all the districts was crippled by severe heat waves.

In June, Dehradun witnessed temperatures above 40oC for 11 consecutive days from June 9 to June 20. Meanwhile, in May, temperature in the city soared above 40oC on  eight days.

Situation was abnormal even in the mountains, and on at least five occasions in May, the hill station of Mukteshwar in Nainital district recorded temperatures of nearly 30o C, the threshold of a heatwave in the hilly terrain. June has been the harshest for the town as it saw maximum temperature settling above 30o for 10 days and on June 15, Mukteshwar recorded a maximum temperature of 32.2o C, the highest in 10 years. This was close to the all-time high record of 32.5o C which was observed on June 16, 2012.

Meteorologists attribute this steep rise in temperature to prolonged dry spells and less precipitation as the pre-monsoon rainfall activity remained almost absent and erratic.

Increased Extreme Rainfall Frequency

Apart from the rainfall getting increasingly erratic there has been a sharp increase in heavy rainfall incidences resulting catastrophic flood and landslide incidences as were experienced in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2019 and 2024.

Modelling work of Neetu Tyagi and others suggests increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures in Uttarakhand by more than 5° C, together with a decrease in the pre-monsoon precipitation and increase in the maximum temperature and precipitation during the monsoon period by the end of the century (2070–2099). This is to result in increased frequency of extreme rainfall events during the monsoon period, which is likely to have significant impact on the biodiversity and livelihood of the people by the end of the century.

Forest Fires

According to an IPCC Report high mountain areas are witnessing an increase in the number of very warm days/nights while the number of extremely cold days/nights are decreasing.

Despite forest fires often being man-made, there does exist a direct relationship between extreme heat and forest fires. In Uttarakhand, the forest fire season typically begins in late March and lasts for around 11 weeks.

Extended dry period in 2024 paved the way for rise in temperature as well as accumulation of dry leaves. All these factors led to faster dissemination of fire, covering larger area and resulting in tree cover loss. Magnitude and seriousness of the problem can well be assessed from the very fact that assistance of Indian Air Force had to be sought for dowsing the fires on numerous occasions during the forest fire season.

Black Carbon

Black carbon is emitted into the atmosphere due to incomplete combustion of fossil fuels in motor vehicles and aircraft exhaustsbio-fuel, and biomass. It absorbs more light and emits infra-red radiation that increases the temperature – thus facilitating fast melting of glaciersForest fires as also large number of tourist vehicles reaching the higher Himalayan reaches are a major source of black carbon in the region, which is testified by the observed sharp rise in black carbon concentration  at Chirbasa, at an altitude of 3600 m and Bhojbasa, at an altitude of 3800 m during summers that coincides with sharp rise in the number of persons visiting

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